"Those folks that MM is standing up for are making educated guesses, but they are still guesses."
I don't mean to hammer and yammer on about that, but I still don't think that is correct. I think what might be more accurate is that you have evidence, and you then understand that evidence. I understand what you mean, as far a predictions. Of course, I suppose we could just call them "educated guesses", because no one knows the future for absolutely, 100% sure. However, meteorologists making "predictions" (I know it is accepted to call them this, but I don't think that is right either...) about this afternoons weather aren't making "educated guesses". Maybe this is just debating sematics or wording, but they base their understanding about the coming weather based on many, many things: What has happend in the past with similar situations, an understanding of the atmosphere, an understanding of weather patterns, computer simulated models and even checking with their collegues information. Even this is simplified. So, I guess you and I and "we" can call whatever we want an "educated guess", but I think that is over-simplified and does a disservice to the work people do. When my mechanic "guesses" what is wrong with my car because of his years of experience, understanding of automotive mechanics, understanding of the sounds my car is making and what is and isn't working -- all the work and experience he has doesn't just make that "an educated guess" in my mind. I think with my inexperience, and minimal knowledge based on my simply owning and driving the car, I would be making an "educated guess".
I don't mean to say this means these people can't or won't be wrong, but I think there is a lack of understanding about the scientific process and in particular the SCIENTIFIC METHOD. Even "educated guesses" just seems like such a "oh yeah, we don't need to listen to THEM" kind of term -- "They just sit around and make these educated guesses without KNOWING anything". Maybe I'm wrong, or being too picky, but that is what I think.
MM